By Ma. Cristina Arayata | Philippine News Agency
About 10 to 13 tropical cyclones are forecast to enter the country from May to October this year, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday.
One or two tropical cyclones are expected in May and June, while two to three are likely to develop per month from July to October, according to PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas.
“Based on analysis on the tropical cyclones the country had from 1948 to 2023 when the cyclone enters the Visayas in May or June, it usually recurves towards Luzon,” she said in an online climate forum.
In June, the cyclone could cross southern or central Luzon and recurve towards northern Luzon.
Abastillas said more rains are expected in July, with the cyclone’s forecast track usually in Luzon.
The cyclones in October usually affect Luzon and the Visayas and make landfall, she said.
Meanwhile, PAGASA senior weather specialist Remedios Ciervo said there is a 60 percent chance that La Niña would develop between June and August.
Ciervo, however, said rainfall could still be low in June and July, especially in the western part of the country.