The average daily number of cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) from Aug. 18 to 24 rose by 13% to 4,019 from the previous record last week, data from OCTA Research showed.
The reproduction number, which shows the rate of COVID-19 transmission in the region, declined to 1.53, which the group said is within critical range.
“Once we get close to Rt [reproduction number] < 1, new cases should start to decrease consistently. We hope this will happen by the first or second week of September,” OCTA’s Dr. Guido David said.
“Based on current trends, it looks like the NCR will hit its peak soon, perhaps before or around the first week of September,” David added.
Among the cities with reported decline in reproduction number are Navotas, Pasay, Malabon, Manila, Quezon City, Las Piñas, and Makati.
Meanwhile, the positivity rate in the region from Aug. 18 to 24 is at 23%.
Hospital occupancy
OCTA said the intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy in the region is high, while hospital bed use is at moderate level.
San Juan has a 100% utilization of ICU, Muntinlupa and Marikina are at 95%, Las Piñas is at 90%, while Parañaque is at 86%. These are all within critical level.
Those under high ICU utilization are Taguig at 83%, Quezon City at 81%, Pasay at 74%, Makati at 73%, Valenzuela at 72%, and Pasig at 70%.
Dr. Rontgene Solante of the country’s Vaccine Expert Panel and Philippine Society for Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (PSMID) past president, said hospitals are still admitting patients.
“Mga hospitals ngayon, especially the government hospitals, are still accommodating patients and more or less talagang pinapreparahan naman natin ‘to,” he said in the Aug. 24 Palace briefing.
Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairperson Benhur Abalos said on the Aug. 24 Talk to the People program that the region is not “out of the woods yet” despite the reported decline in some indicators.
“Bagama’t kumaunti ang naging anak nitong virus na ito … pataas pa rin po tayo. Pero siguro ito po’y epekto na rin ng two-week ECQ po natin – maski papaano ay napababa po itong ating growth rate,” he said.
Delta variant
The World Health Organization (WHO) earlier said that it would take a long time before COVID-19 disappears amid the threat posed by the Delta variant.
“Even with all our best efforts, it now seems clear that, globally, the virus will not disappear. At least, not in the near future,” WHO Western Pacific Regional Dir. Takeshi Kasai said in an Aug. 25 briefing.
The Philippines is among the countries in the Western Pacific Region with an increasing number of Delta variant cases. It has 1,273 cases as of Aug. 23.
“We know lockdown alone cannot really reduce the transmission down, and so it is very important to identify and know where the infections are occurring and suppress that,” he said. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG- jlo
