The National Capital Region (NCR) is now under moderate risk for COVID-19 after recording a negative two-week growth rate (2WGR) and lower average daily attack rate (ADAR), according to the Department of Health (DOH).
DOH data showed that the ADAR of NCR from Sept. 10 to 23 was at 36.59 per hundred thousand population, with a current active case count of 41,609.
DOH said the latest reported average new cases in the NCR is at 4,400 or 23% lower than last week’s figures. However, DOH USec. Maria Rosario Vergeire said the decline is also in line with a decreased testing output.
A drop in COVID-19 testing was also reported in Regions 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13. The positivity rate likewise fell from 27.5% to 25.5%.
“May mabagal tayong nakikitang pagtaas ng kaso pero ina-analyze ng DOH kasi maraming factors that might have contributed sa nakikita nating dalawang araw o tatlong araw na bumababa ang kaso,” she said.
“One of the biggest factors might be the decrease in the laboratory output here in the NCR,” she added.
The reproduction number or number of individuals infected from a case declined to 1.004 on Sept. 9 from 1.12 on Aug. 24. Latest OCTA Research Group monitoring today (Sept. 24) showed that NCR’s reproduction number has gone down to 0.97.
All cities of the region also posted negative one-week growth rates in the past week.
New alert level system
Vergeire said the improvement in the latest figures in NCR cannot yet be solely attributed to the policy shift in the region which uses an alert level-based quarantine.
She said it is too early to conclude that the new policy be implemented in areas outside the region.
Dr. Marylaine Padlan of the One Hospital Command Center (OHCC) said their previous average daily calls of 500 also declined to 300 to 400 in the past week.
“Mayroon pa ring challenges kaming na-e-encounter sa pag-refer, pero mas napapasok na ngayon ‘yung ating mga pasyente sa hospital dito sa NCR,” she said.
Hospital occupancy
The intensive care unit (ICU) utilization of the country and NCR remains under high risk level at 79% and 80%, respectively.
The DOH has estimated NCR active cases to reach 58,000 by the end of September and to lower at 46,000 by end of October. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
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