The SWS survey is based on perception of 2,000 adults. I cannot imagine how the economy will be worse off 12 months from now, coming from a record- breaking contraction in the second quarter of 2020, owing to the total lockdown in March, April and May. In the third quarter, the government has opened the economy gradually, let part of business activity to resume, and allowed more transport to operate. I expect that the economy will be more open in Q4 than in Q3, more open in Q1 2021 than in Q42020, and so on. So it boggles my mind how the economy will be worse 12 months from now. The virus infection rate has started to flatten, R naught is now below 1, and the government has shifted from general lockdown to granular or localised lockdown.
We’re in better shape now than we were three months ago. Based on available information, I truly believe that worst is behind us.
Repeat: the SWS survey is based on perception by a limited number of adults with limited information. Let me assure everyone that based on immediate past , nowcast, and forecast data, the Philippines is now on its way to recovery. Hence, the economy would be in a better — not worse– shape.
