Daily COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may reach 16,000 to 43,000 by September 30, the Department of Health (DOH) said.
The projection was based on mobility, situation of hospitals, and compliance with minimum public health standards.
“Ginagamit ng Department of Health at ng gobyerno ang projections para i-project natin at malaman natin ano ba ‘yung pangangailangan natin,” Dr. Alethea de Guzman of DOH Epidemiology Bureau said Thursday.
The DOH said the numbers may still change through the implementation of granular lockdowns, active case finding, and strengthened vaccination programs of local governments.
According to OCTA Research, the reproduction number or rate of transmission in the region may settle below 1 by the third week of the month.
The group said the number suggests that transmission is under control in Metro Manila and that it is no longer under critical stage, following its reproduction number’s decline to 1.39.
“That’s why we’re not suggesting a stricter lockdown at the moment. What we’re suggesting is let’s make the MECQ work by strictly implementing this particular quarantine classification,” Prof Ranjit Rye said.
Rye added that the public must also minimum public health standards and to “be more disciplined and vigilant,” and that the government must “prioritize expanding our healthcare systems” and booster shots for health workers.
Dr. De Guzman/DOH says the Philippines remains under high risk classification for COVID-19, but the growth in cases declined to 45%. pic.twitter.com/M36jJW4r0T
— PTVph (@PTVph) September 2, 2021
Metro Manila is currently under high risk classification with an active case toll of 39,388 as of Sept. 1, and a two-week growth rate (2WGR) of 46% from 130%.
The region has a hospital bed utilization rate of 70% and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate of 72.74%. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
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