The number of COVID-19 cases in the country may balloon to 40,000 by June 30, a study of UP OCTA Research team bared, based on the reproduction number (R naught) of COVID-19.
Based on the data presented by experts, the R naught of COVID-19 in the country was more than 3 during the peak of the enhanced community quarantine in April but has gone down. By the start of June, it fell to 1.2 which means an individual with COVID-19 may transmit it to one or more individuals. Data also showed the R naught in NCR is at 1 but its trend seesaws.
Experts said the situation in Cebu must be monitored since its R naught is at 2. They added that the data show there is still community transmission in the country.
“Kapag mataas sa 1 ang R natin, that means our management of the pandemic needs to be improved kasi nga mas maraming mahahawa at may posibilidad na magkaroon ng outbreak (If our R is more than 1, that means our management of the pandemic needs improvement since more people may acquire it and an outbreak is a possibility). If it’s less than 1, then our management of the pandemic is good,” Prof. Ranjit Rye explained.
The research team said there is a higher chance of transmission amid the increase in the number of individuals allowed to go out of their homes. However, the group also sees something positive in the measures of various regions to address COVID-19.
Prof. Guido David said the country has “cities winning the war.”
“Actually ‘yong natitira na lang battleground kumbaga, ay NCR, Cebu. ‘Yung Davao nag-improve na rin sya eh (Actually the remaining battlegrounds are NCR, Cebu. Davao has already improved).”
As of June 11, confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country reached 24,175 after 253 fresh cases and 190 late cases were reported. Recoveries rose to 5,156 while number of fatalities climbed to 1,036.
