By Brian Jules Campued
The low pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao is likely to develop into a tropical depression by Friday – the country’s first tropical cyclone for 2024 – according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
During a press briefing at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center on Thursday, weather specialist Ana Clauren-Jorda said the LPA entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning and was located 870 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao as of 10 a.m.
The LPA will be assigned the local name “Aghon” once it intensifies into a tropical depression.
Jorda said the weather disturbance is forecast to remain offshore while moving northwestward near the waters off the Bicol – Eastern Visayas regions until Saturday (May 25), then recurve northeastward by Sunday (May 26).
However, she said the LPA’s expected track may still change due to its broad circulation — thereby not ruling out the possibility of the tropical depression making landfall over the Bicol – Eastern Visayas area.
She added that uncertainty regarding its track remains high over the next 48 hours.
It could also intensify into a tropical storm on Sunday as it moves away from the country.
“At habang kumikilos palayo ng PAR by Tuesday ay mas lalakas pa po ito at posible po itong umabot sa severe tropical storm,” the weather specialist said.
The state weather bureau said it may hoist tropical cyclone wind signals over portions of Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas Region by the initial issuance of a tropical cyclone bulletin on Friday.
The potential cyclone is forecast to bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern and Northern Samar, while light to moderate rains may prevail over Bicol, Caraga, and the rest of Eastern Visayas on Friday.
“Moderate to heavy–with at times intense–rains possible over Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Northern Samar while light to moderate rains possible over Quezon including Polillo Islands, the rest of Bicol, and the rest of Eastern Visayas,” the PAGASA said.
PAGASA warned that flash floods and landslides may occur in these areas. – iro