By Mark Fetalco
OCTA Research said on Friday that the current reproduction number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila dropped to 1.58 following the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR)and four nearby provinces this week.
Based on OCTA’s April 2 monitoring report, “the average number of new Covid-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 4,899 from March 25 to April 1, an increase of 19% over the previous week.”
But the group noted that this percentage increase is lower than the previous weekly increase of 60%, and also reflects the decrease in reproduction number.
However, they said the decrease in Metro Manila may be attributed in part to reduced testing.
“The average number of tests per day in the NCR from March 28 to 31 was 25,880, a 12% decrease in tests compared to the daily average from March 21 to 27,” OCTA explained.
“The problem is that with a high positivity rate of 23%, PCR testing in the NCR is no longer able to keep up with the current pandemic surge in the NCR.”
OCTA Research, a group of independent researchers from the University of the Philippines, issued the report four days after NCR and four other provinces were placed under ECQ until Easter Sunday, April 4, as earlier announced.
“The growth rate in NCR Plus [Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal] as well as in Batangas and Pampanga decreased to 40% or less, which indicates that the interventions imposed by the national government, in particular the ECQ, were effective in slowing the growth of the pandemic in NCR Plus,” the research group added.
While the list of the most number of new Covid-19 cases from March 25 to April 1 was still dominated by NCR cities, OCTA noted that the growth rate significantly decreased for several local government units, particularly Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan, Makati, Parañaque, and Valenzuela.
“It is also encouraging to see that Pasay and Malabon showed a negative growth rate compared to the previous week. This shows that the combined effects of the GCQ [general community quarantine] bubble and ECQ have resulted in significant improvements in the trends in key parts of NCR,” OCTA said.
Among the NCR cities, OCTA pointed out that Pasig, Mandaluyong, Parañaque, Valenzuela, and Navotas “are still showing sufficient headroom in hospital bed vacancies.”
While the hospital bed occupancy in NCR was at 66%, the intensive care unit occupancy was already at 76% (critical), as well as in Cavite (73%), Laguna (78%), Pampanga (80%), Benguet (70%), and Isabela (100%).
In NCR Plus, only Bulacan had less than 60% hospital bed occupancy, at 48%.
OCTA also said Cebu is on a downward trend and the region has managed to reduce hospital bed and ICU occupancy.
The positivity rate in Cebu was “at an acceptable level of 10%,” while Benguet, Cavite, Rizal, Laguna, Bulacan, and Batangas all had positivity rates higher than 20%.
On the other hand, OCTA noted that Isabela “had a significant increase in new Covid-19 cases, up 64% compared to the previous week, while its positivity rate also remained very high at 28%.”
