By Christine Fabro
The independent research group OCTA sees a downward trend of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region; however, an increase in the number of new cases were found in most areas in Western Visayas and Mindanao, particularly in Iloilo City and Davao City.
In some local government units (LGUs) in Mindanao, the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate is “very concerning”, according to OCTA during an interview in the Laging Handa public briefing on Wednesday (June 9).
Other areas with an increased number of COVID-19 cases include South Cotabato, General Santos, Cotabato City, and even in Western Visayas.
“It depends on the definition ng perspective of the person on what the epicenter is. From our perspective nga, we could say na it [Mindanao] is also one of the epicenters ngayon, along with Western Visayas,” David said.
However, he clarified that the epicenter of the virus remains in the National Capital Region (NCR) as it is still averaging almost 1,000 new cases per day.
Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DOH) Usec. Maria Rosario Vergeire discouraged using “epicenter” as the term to describe the rise of cases in an area.
“Epicenter, in relation to epidemics, are interpreted by some to refer to an area as the source of the infection. It is also meant to connote the area as a hotspot for the infection. We discourage the use of the term “epicenter” in describing the rise of cases in an area,” said Vergeire.
“These areas are not the origin of the COVID-19 virus. Moreover, using the term “epicenter” detracts from other surrounding areas which may be equally or more affected by COVID-19,” she added.
Projection for the COVID-19 surge outside Metro Manila
OCTA suggested an increase in the ICU capacity and number of healthcare workers in hospitals, generally in Mindanao.
“As the surge progresses, ang pupuntahan niyan ay ospital po for a minority of the people. [Kung] significant ang surge, mapupuno iyong mga hospitals. Kaya, kailangan [na] ang focus talaga ay increasing hospital capacity not just iyong beds and ventilators, pero pati na rin iyong ating hospital healthcare workers,” said research fellow Professor Ranjit Rye.
He added that efforts in testing, tracing, and isolation in the COVID hotspots in Western Visayas and Mindanao should be accelerated and expanded to improve the capacity to detect cases.
Prof. Rye also noted a significant increase in the hospital capacity in Iloilo City where the hospital utilization rate is at 83% while the ICU utilization rate is at 97%.
“Nakikita na natin right now for Iloilo City the hospital capacity is close to being overwhelmed; Davao City is still good, it can manage,” he said.
Dr. David said that the surge in cases usually lasts for at least one to two months before it gets contained.
Containing the virus
To date, Prof. Rye said only less than 2% of the Philippines’ total population have been vaccinated against COVID-19, far from the target percentage of inoculated individuals to contain the virus.
“Napakakaunti pa to have an effect… We need something like 32% to 50% to see significant changes in the trends as far as the epidemic is concerned,” he said.
“Masaya ako na nag-ro-rollout na iyong ating vaccination program. Sana the government’s eagle eyes, focus on the ball, simulan dito sa NCR [Plus 8] at ubusin na talaga lahat ng kailangang mabakunahan dito. If [the] government will stick to the plan, we will have some good news by September or October, as far as containment is concerned,” he added.
The research fellow said the country will remain vulnerable to surges and outbreaks until it vaccinates 50% to 70% of its total population.
As of June 8, the total number of vaccine doses administered in the Philippines stands at 6,314,548.
Of which, 4,632,826 were recipients of the first dose, while the remaining 1,681,722 were fully vaccinated against the COVID-19. – rir
