The OCTA Research team said on Sunday (Aug. 1) Metro Manila is experiencing a “serious” surge following the recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the region.
According to the team, the National Capital Region (NCR) recorded the highest number of new cases since May 10 with over 1,700 on Saturday (July 31).
OCTA also reported an increase in the region’s reproduction number — from 1.29 for July 25 to 31, to 1.52 for July 18 to 24. The group believes that the high figure is a possible indication of a Delta variant community transmission.
“Ngayon sa NCR, 1,400 na halos ‘yung average nating daily cases, pero two weeks ago nasa 650 lang. Dumoble siya in two weeks, similar ‘yan sa mga patterns na nakita natin sa mga bansang tinamaan ng Delta variant,” OCTA Research group fellow Dr. Guido David said.
In relation to this, the latest genome sequencing report of the Philippine Genome Center (PGC) showed that around 25% of the samples are positive for the Delta variant.
“Kung gagamitin natin ang 25% na basehan, ibig sabihin sa NCR, posibleng mga nasa 300 cases per day ay Delta variant,” David added.
However, the OCTA group emphasized that the government and public are now more prepared to face a surge than they were in March 2020.
“I think mas aware na ‘yung mga tao, at mas handa na sila dito. Tanggap na nila na baka magka-lockdown dahil may threat ng Delta variant. At kumpara noong March, medyo late tayo nag-implement ng lockdown, hinintay nating umabot ng mga 5,000 cases,” David said.
He said the two-week lockdown in NCR is sufficient because it was implemented earlier than last year. However, he warned that it is possible for hospital bed occupancy to reach 70% within five weeks, while intensive care units (ICU) may reach 70% occupancy within three weeks if the region’s quarantine status does not change.
Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DOH) assured that hospitals are ready for a possible surge caused by the Delta variant.
“’Yung mga hospitals naman nag-allocate na rin. Dahan-dahan na rin silang nag-improve ng resources, at nag-increase ng capacity nila sa intensive care units. At nagtayo na rin kami ng modular hospitals na nag-oopen,” DOH Undersecretary Dr. Leopoldo Vega guaranteed.
Report from Mark Fetalco/NGS- jlo
