The OCTA Research team said on Monday (Aug. 30) Metro Manila’s reproduction number may drop below one in mid-September.
In today’s Laging Handa, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that based on their projections, Metro Manila’s reproduction number may decrease to less than one in Sep. 13 or Sep. 14. He explained that a reproduction number lower than one may indicate the slowing of the COVID-19 transmission.
“By mga September 13 to 14, based on projections baka bumaba to less than one iyong reproduction, so ibig sabihin bumaba na iyong hawaan or bababa na iyong bilang ng kaso pagdating ng September.”
However, he said that the number of cases per day in the country may reach more than 20,000 since the result of the two-week lockdown will “usually” show after three to four weeks.
“Pero sa ngayon, dahil hindi pa siya bumababa less than, tumataas pa rin iyong bilang ng kaso pero bumagal na iyong growth rate na tinatawag o iyong pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso. Pero sa ngayon, dahil umabot na tayo ng 19,000, makikita natin maaaring lumagpas pa iyan ng 20,000 cases per day sa buong bansa.”
In relation to this, David said the hospitalization rate may remain high due to the increased number of occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds compared in April.
“Although nakikita na light at the end of the tunnel na maaaring magkaroon tayo ng downward trend by second week of September, ‘yung hospital utilization natin mananatiling mataas baka throughout September yan, kasi kahit bumaba na ang bilang ng kaso natin, higit pa rin tayo sa surge capacity which is around 2,500 to 3,000 cases.”
OCTA Research member Prof. Ranjit Rye urged the public to strictly observe the minimum health standards to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 following the result of their survey where only few individuals are strictly complying with the health standards.
In the “Tugon ng Masa” survey conducted on July 12 to July 18 where the respondents were asked the measures they take in avoiding COVID-19 infection, 89% answered with the use of face masks, 85% with regular cleaning of hands, 70% with the use of face shields, and 64% answered with physical distancing.
“Nakita naming nag-decline talaga ‘yung frequency ng pagsuot ng face shield, face mask, social distancing, paghugas ng kamay, compared from January to July. Isang area ‘to na kailangan nating i-improve.”
Report from Mark Fetalco/NGS-rir
