The OCTA Research Group said the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may have already reached its peak based on its decreasing reproduction number.
The region’s reproduction number for Sept. 13 to 19 is 1.14, and its one week growth rate declined by 13% during the same period.
However, the Department of Health (DOH) USec. Maria Rosario Vergeire said the rise in the number of Metro Manila COVID-19 cases has not yet peaked, and that it may take place toward the end of September or by early October.
Vergeire said the peak may have been delayed due to the implementation of community quarantines, improvement in the Prevention, Detection, Isolation, Treatment, and Reintegration (PDITR) strategy, and vaccination rollout.
“Hindi natin masabi ngayon. ‘Pag tiningnan natin, kailangan pa nating pag-aralang maigi ‘yung datos natin. Patuloy pa ring tumataas ang mga kaso natin sa National Capital Region, although bumagal ang pagtaas, pero tumataas pa rin siya,” she said.
The nationwide rise in COVID-19 infections were observed to be slowing down in the past week, with average daily cases on Sept. 13 to 19 at 19,963 and 20,950 on Sept. 6 to 12.
Vergeire said cases may still continue to increase in the following weeks due to the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant.
Latest DOH report said 319 more Delta variant cases were detected in the country which account for 85% of the sequenced samples.
“Of the 12,530 samples sequenced assigned with lineage as of September 18, 24.2% of samples were positive for the Delta variant. This variant is now the most common lineage among sequenced samples as of the latest whole genome sequencing run,” Vergeire said.
Meanwhile, the DOH saw a peak in the number of COVID-19 deaths in mid-August with a daily average of 155 and a monthly record of 4,816. The number of deaths are reportedly increasing in Regions 3, 4A, and 7.
“As your number of cases increase, your deaths will increase, kasama yun sa kanyang mga analysis,” Vergeire said. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
Watch full report here:
