The reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) declined to 1.38, the latest monitoring report of the OCTA Research showed.
The group said five cities in NCR are approaching a downward trend in terms of new cases. Las Piñas has a -20% growth rate, Navotas has -29%, Muntinlupa has -11%, Pasay has -9%, and Manila has -3% from September 3 to 9.
They have reproduction numbers of 1.09, 1.12, 1.16, 1.16, and 1.17, respectively during the same period.
However, San Juan, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Marikina, Pasig, Taguig, and Paraῆaque are at critical level for having high reproduction numbers.
“‘Yung hope natin once we shift to granular lockdown ay mas mako-contain natin ‘yung mga cases doon sa mataas ‘yung kaso,” Prof. Guido David said in an interview.
“Hindi naman necessary ‘yung buong city. Kunwari may city na mataas ‘yung reproduction number, minsan may mga ilang barangay na nandoon ‘yung mataas na bilang ng kaso,” he added.
Based on Department of Health (DOH) and FASSSTER assumptions, active cases in the region may “range from 152,000 to 330,000” by the end of September.
The country remains at high risk classification for COVID-19 cases, with its two-week growth rate (2WGR) under moderate risk at 30%, and average daily attack rate (ADAR) under high risk level at 17.14 per hundred thousand population.
A decrease in 2WGR was observed nationally and in NCR, Regions 2, 3, 4A, 7, and 10.
Meanwhile, hospital referral One Hospital Command Center (OHCC) said it is receiving an average of 500 calls per day, and are mostly related to COVID-19.
OHCC medical officer Dr. Marylaine Padlan said the rise in calls is also seen in Regions 3 and 4A wherein majority of their cases showed moderate to severe symptoms. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
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