The OCTA Research group said the stricter restrictions imposed by the government on Metro Manila and four neighboring areas under a general community quarantine bubble would not bring down the reproduction number to 1 within two weeks.
“Hindi siguro. (Not likely). I think the government is also mindful naman, if we can just slow it down. We’re hoping sana somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5. 1.2 is really optimistic,” Professor Ranjit Rye told PTV News.
Currently, the reproduction number in the National Capital Region is 2.1, which means a COVID-19 case may infect two or more individuals.
However, Rye stressed that what is important, aside from lowering the reproduction number, is to prevent the hospitals from getting overwhelmed.
“Sana kung yung interventions nating lahat, magawa natin in time so that hindi mapuno ‘yung ating hospital. Iyon ang key goal natin ngayon eh. (Maybe if all our interventions will all be done in time so that hospitals would not be filled-up. That is our key goal). We reduce transmission so it doesn’t only protect ourselves from getting infected, but also prevent overwhelming our hospital system,” he said.
If the current surge continues, the OCTA estimates that it will only take two weeks for the hospital system to be filled up.
“So if it gets filled up, the interventions that set up by government, will take maybe two to three weeks to have a full effect,” Rye added.
In the event that it happens, OCTA recommends for government to have stricter quarantine decisions.
Rye also suggested reassigning some healthcare workers from areas with low cases to hospitals here in NCR, and to maximize the One Hospital Command.
Meanwhile, OCTA has repeatedly advised the public to contribute in lowering the cases of COVID-19 by simply complying with the minimum public health standards such as wearing of face masks and face shields and physical distancing.
“Kung gagawin natin lahat together with yung mobility restrictions na inimplement ng government dito sa NCR bubble, we’re hoping na within the next few days, may impact yan (If we do all these together with mobility restrictions being implemented by the government here in the NCR bubble, we’re hoping that within the next few days, there will be an impact),” Rye predicted. – Mark Fetalco
