The OCTA Research group believes that it is too early to relax the community quarantine classification in National Capital Region Plus, an area that includes Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.
In a Laging Handa public briefing on Monday (May 10), OCTA Research group fellow Professor Ranjit Rye said that despite the clamor for general community quarantine (GCQ), there are still “indicators” showing that the region is not quite ready for a change in classification.
“Ang tingin ng ibang members ng grupo namin kailangan pa ng panahon… We want all these indicators to be below critical levels,” he said.
The group explained that based on its data, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in the Philippines has slightly decreased from 1.9 to 1.67. However, the r-naught figure’s decrease has slowed down since the declaration of modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ).
OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco claimed that the MECQ mobility numbers are “comparable to the GCQ [general community quarantine] numbers.”
The team said the region’s daily average attack rate remains high, as does the positivity rate which is at 14%.
“So having said that, the hospital occupancy, especially the ICU [intensive care units], is still almost at the critical level. Around 69%, and the critical level is set at 70%…All our isolation beds, ward beds are holding on below 70%. So our hospitals are easing up a bit. However, the ICU is a little full,” the group added.
The OCTA Research team said the downward trend must be “sustained” before declaring a relaxed quarantine classification.
“Right now, the trends are good, but we are not where we’re supposed to be…We want to sustain the good trends we have so far.”
However, OCTA assured that it will support the government’s decision on the matter.
“We will support whatever the government decides. What we’re suggesting is caution. What we’re suggesting is a calibrated slow exit strategy so we can sustain the trends.”
Report from Louisa Erispe/NGS-jlo
