By Ma. Cristina Arayata/PNA
MANILA — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday it did not issue wrong forecast and warnings related to Tropical Depression Usman that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last December.
On its official Twitter account, PAGASA belied UP NOAH executive director Mahar Lagmay’s claim that the forecast and warnings issued during the onslaught of “Usman” were wrong.
Mahar’s Facebook post dated January 5 was titled, “Simpleng analysis kung bakit maraming namatay sa Bicol dahil sa #UsmanPH”.
The post did not directly mention PAGASA, but referred to apparently a wrong forecast last December 28-29.
“Ang forecast noong Dec. 28-29, 2018 ay moderate (light blue) to heavy (dark blue) rainfall sa Bicol. Ang totoong nangyari ay intense (yellow) to torrential (red) ang pinakamalalakas na ulan. Malaki ang diperensya nito, lalung-lalo na dahil ang sukat ng moderate (2.5-7.5 mm/hr), heavy (7.5-15 mm/hr), intense (15-30 mm/hr) at torrential (>30 mm/hr) ay kada oras. Tumagal ng ilang oras ang intense at torrential rainfall sa Bicol (The forecast last Dec. 28-29, 2018 was moderate to heavy rainfall in Bicol. What really happened was intense to torrential rainfall. There’s a big difference, because the measurement of moderate, heavy, intense, and torrential is per hour. The intense and torrential rainfall in Bicol lasted several hours),” a part of Lagmay’s post read.
Through a statement, PAGASA administrator Vicento Malano said the bureau defines moderate to heavy rainfall in its severe weather bulletins as 24-hour daily accumulated rains of 6 mm to 180 mm and more than 180 mm, respectively.
“In this premise, the Dec. 28-29 PAGASA forecasters had sufficiently warned that the 24-hour accumulated rainfall of moderate to heavy would trigger massive flooding and landslides,” he said.
Malano added that when PAGASA downgraded “Usman” into a low-pressure area (LPA), the weather bureau reiterated its warnings of possible flooding and landslides as moderate to heavy rainfall would persist.
PAGASA downgraded “Usman” into an LPA last December 29, after the weather disturbance made landfall in the vicinity of Borongan, Eastern Samar.
Meanwhile, Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Fortunato dela Peña earlier told the Philippine News Agency (PNA) that the DOST has provided additional research funding support to PAGASA in 2018.
“The fund was used for improved model development and validation, specifically for forecasting,” he said.
Dela Peña said the DOST also invested heavily in human resource development last year, “especially in having more of our researchers and forecasters earn their Master of Science and PhD.”
