By Civ Alonzo-Cruz
The OCTA Research group clarified in a press briefing on Monday (Dec.27) that the uptick in the COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is not Omicron-driven and it is still early to speculate since the uptick also happened during holidays last year.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in the Laging Handa press briefing that the uptick is due to the social gatherings of Filipino families and friends this holiday season.
The reproduction number of COVID positive cases rose to 0.85 from last week’s seven-day average of 0.44. The figures are still below the 1% threshold of the Department of Health’s (DOH) average daily attack rate (ADAR).
However, he also said that the uptick also happened during the holiday season last year and there is nothing to be alarmed yet.
“Nasabi nga natin 0.85. Iyong ADAR natin sa NCR ay less than 1 pa rin naman, nasa 0.82. So, basta less than 1 iyong ADAR, okay pa rin naman siya at iyong positivity rate natin tumaas din, nasa 1.4%, medyo tumataas ng bahagya. Ngayon, ito kapag ikumpara natin sa nakaraan na holiday season noong 2020 noong December, nagkaroon din tayo ng holiday uptick,” David said.
“So, hindi natin masasabi ngayon na Omicron-driven ito dahil nakita rin naman natin ito last year. Siguro doon sa pagtitipon-tipon ng mga kababayan natin, kaya kailangan doble pag-iingat lang naman din ang kinakailangan natin. Sa ngayon, hindi pa natin masasabi kung may factor iyong Omicron, pero ang sinasabi lang natin, base sa nakaraan na taon, ay may nakita rin naman tayong holiday uptick,” he added.
David also advised the public to wait for the data on the first week of January 2022 to determine the numbers if there is really a surge in COVID-19 cases in December 2021.
He compared the situation in the last January 2021 data where OCTA Research saw the normality of the positivity and reproduction rates after analyzing all the data from the reduced number of testings in December 2020.
“Ang nangyari naman noong January this year lang, noong January of 2021, iyong uptick ay bumalik na siya sa normal level. so bumaba ulit siya. Iyon iyong sanang gusto nating makita ngayon na after January, kapag na-resolve na iyong testing, iyong kakulangan natin sa testing at iyong mga closed laboratories ay bababa ulit sa normal levels ang bilang ng kaso. Iyan iyong gusto nating mangyari,” David said.
In a report posted in his social media account on Christmas Eve (Dec. 24), OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the group will be unable to have a clear situation until the first week of January due to decreased testing over the holidays season.
When asked if OCTA Research sees a reason to tighten restrictions given the increase in COVID reproduction number, David answered that there is no need to increase restrictions at this time.
“Sa ngayon kasi, hindi pa tayo puwedeng gumawa ng premature na intervention, kasi hindi pa kumpleto iyong nakikita natin na larawan. Pero at the same time, magandang reminder na rin sa ating mga kababayan natin na patuloy ang pag-iingat at pagsunod sa minimum public health standards, pagsuot ng face mask and magpabakuna iyong mga hindi pa bakunado,” he said.
The OCTA Research group will re-evaluate the COVID-19 situation in the country in the first or second week of January 2022. -rir
