The Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday (July 27) clarified that while there is an observed increase in the number of cases, there is no definitive evidence of a surge in the National Capital Region (NCR).
The DOH, however, is closely monitoring daily trends and is immediately flagging areas with increases in rates of transmission based on two-week growth rates (TWGR), in affected populations as per average daily attack rate (ADAR), and/or health care utilization.
The DOH noted the observations of independent expert groups but maintains that such observations should be carefully verified.
Based on current data analysis by the DOH Epidemiology Bureau and FASSSTER, NCR is showing a 19% increase for its TWGR and ADAR of six cases per 100,000 population, which is at moderate risk.
According to DOH, FASSTER is an app that is “a user-friendly tool for modeling disease spreads in the Philippines to aid in the DOH’s disease surveillance efforts.”
Makati, Las Piñas, Pasay, Pasig, Taguig, Paranaque, Manila, Valenzuela, Navotas, Marikina, and Caloocan all have positive TWGR – a trend reversal from negative two-week growth rates three to four weeks ago. Additionally, Makati, Las Piñas, and Pasay have high risk ADAR.
“In terms of our health care capacity, nationally we are seeing low health care and intensive care utilization rate,” DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said.
“We are also closely monitoring pending ER admissions. While we have enough capacity as of now as evidenced by the low risk HCUR and ICUR, we must continue our preparations to strengthen local health system capacities and further augment the needed resources to maintain these low risk levels. We need to make sure that we have enough capacity to cope with the demand in the event that cases continue their upward trend,” she added.
The DOH works hand in hand with the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Metro Manila Center for Health Development, Regional Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, and City Epidemiology and Surveillance Units to ensure that these signals of increase in cases are immediately flagged, investigated, and addressed as soon as possible.
“We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics, which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols.
“Otherwise, we might see daily active cases in NCR to reach 11,000 by the end of September 2021 based on the projections calculated by FASSSTER, with the assumption that the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible, a conservative estimate of how fast the Delta variant will spread,” Vergeire added.
The Department said it values the work of independent experts but appealed to them to be more careful in making pronouncements in terms of the national situation, as this may cause more panic and fear.
“While we acknowledge the differences in the metrics and methods of analysis used by these independent groups, we share the same goal to keep the case numbers down and improve the healthcare system of the country,” Vergeire explained. (DOH) – jlo
