National Capital Region (NCR) COVID-19 cases may peak to an average of 10,000 daily by the end of September now that the declining reproduction rate in the region remains at 1.4 to 1.45, the OCTA Research Group said.
Prof. Guido David of OCTA said in a virtual townhall briefing on Monday (Sept. 13) that the growth rate has stalled at around 15% and has delayed the peak of the pandemic.
“Even with the more effective strategy now that will reduce the reproduction number, hopefully we can see the peak before the end of September and cases will start to decrease by the end of September towards October,” he said.
He added that they are hoping Metro Manila will “follow the path of Cebu City to recovery,” where the reproduction number is at 0.76.
Molecular biologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said healthcare workers are now getting overwhelmed by the increasing number of those getting hospitalized due to COVID-19, and that hospital capacity is far from getting maximized.
“The numbers do not reflect what we are actually seeing in the healthcare system,” Austriaco said. “Why is it that in the middle of a surge — quite high for several weeks after this — why is it that we stopped increasing the number of occupied beds in the NCR?”
Data from the Department of Health (DOH) show that the occupancy of 10,470 beds in Metro Manila is at 69.6% as of Sept. 11.
Delta variant
Health authorities on Sept. 13 reported 640 new Delta variant cases, including 584 local cases, 52 returning overseas Filipinos, and four cases that are currently being verified. There are 2,708 Delta cases in the country to date.
Of the new cases, 112 are from NCR, 52 are from Cagayan Valley, 49 are from Calabarzon, and two are from the Bangsamoro Region. Three are active, 13 have died, and 624 have recovered.
The Philippine Genome Center (PGC) said it has scaled down its COVID-19 RT-PCR testing services to shift its resources to whole genome sequencing (WGS) for variant detection.
“This will eventually enable PGC to expand processing of around 1,500 samples per week for WGS in the coming weeks, as they gear up preparations to achieve this weekly target output,” the DOH said.
Herd immunity
Dr. John Wong, an epidemiologist and Epimetrics senior technical adviser, said achieving herd immunity this year may not be possible due to the increasing number of cases of variants of concern.
“Now we know that herd immunity will be out of reach based on several factors. First, vaccines may not be transmission-blocking,” Wong said.
“Second, there are new variants that are more transmissible and are vaccine-resistant. Alpha is more transmissible, Beta is more vaccine resistant, and Delta is both,” he added.
The doctor also encouraged the vaccination of individuals older than 50 years old to cut down the number of deaths due to COVID-19. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG- jlo
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