OCTA Research Group explained on Monday that the implementation of the week-long enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the Greater Manila Areas contributed to driving down the COVID-19 reproduction number.
According to Prof. Guido David, the 1.9 reproduction number of COVID-19 during the implementation of the National Capital Region (NCR) Plus Bubble went down to 1.6 after the first week of ECQ.
“Ibig sabihin niyan, ‘yung trend is slowing down, kung iko-compare natin ‘yung growth rate, one-week growth rate (This means the trend is slowing down if we compare the one-week growth rate),” David said.
“Nag-decrease siya, from 60% increase to 20%. Ibig sabihin, ‘yung number of new cases natin this week mga 5,500 (It decreased from 60% to 20%. This means the number of new cases this week is around 5,500). It’s only a 20% increase from last week,” he added.
Guido explained that the increase in cases “decreased” compared to the past weeks when the spike was at “50% to 60% every week.”
“Now, for the past week, the increase was only down to 20%. So ‘yun ‘yung (that is the) start ng (of) improvement,” he said.
The group said it recommended waiting for the effect of the ECQ extension before properly identifying the next quarantine classifications to be implemented in the Greater Manila Area.
“Ang puno’t-dulo lang naman (The point) is really the healthcare capacity must be able to take care all of the cases being brought to them,” Prof. Butch Ong said.
The group projected that COVID-19 cases in the country may surpass one million before the month of April ends if the recorded number of cases in the previous days will be used as a basis.
Meanwhile, Dr. Edsel Salvana, an infectious disease specialist, urged the public to strictly comply with health protocols and to avoid going out if not necessary, as the increase of cases is also observed abroad. – Report from Kenneth Paciente/AG-jlo
