The National Capital Region may be at low risk for COVID-19 in the next two weeks if the region’s situation continues to improve, according to OCTA Research Group.
Based on OCTA’s data, NCR’s COVID-19 reproduction number decreased to 0.43, but the region remains under moderate risk classification with a high positivity rate of 20%.
Prof. Guido David of the group said the NCR may record cases below 1,000 by the middle of February.
The group said the actual number of COVID-19 cases in the NCR could be 1.8 times higher than the reported cases, based on the random antigen testing conducted by the transportation department on Jan. 26 and 27.
“They found a positivity rate that was just 0.6 percent based on random passengers testing positive, compared to January 12 to 13, which was at 12.5 percent. So that’s a significant reduction in the positivity rate,” David said.
Based on the Department of Health’s (DOH) COVID tracker, the hospital bed occupancy of Metro Manila dropped to 38.9%.
The number of admitted patients at the Philippine General Hospital (PGH) also decreased from 349 to 290, according to National Task Force medical adviser Dr. Ted Herbosa.
“Actually, ang maximum lang namin, 250 beds lang for COVID. Pero siyempre nag-e-expand tayo, dagdag tayo nang dagdag as many cases happen. So now, bumalik na tayo sa mababang numbers, and kaunti lang ‘yung mga naka-ventilator at naka-oxygen therapy,” he said.
Meanwhile, OCTA noted that Cebu City and Davao City have already recorded a decline in the number of cases.
However, some areas are still on an upward trend including Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cotabato, Davao De Oro, Davao Del Norte, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Maguindanao, Negros Oriental, Sarangani, South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat.
“‘Yung peak nila will probably come within the next one to two weeks. The overall number will not be significantly impacted by these provinces kasi kaunti na lang sila,” David said.
“Kumbaga mas marami pababa na kaysa ‘yung pataas. ‘Yung pataas ay kakaunti na lang. Based on the overall numbers, I’m expecting that sometime in February, probably by Valentines, we will be down to 10,000 cases per day in the entire country,” he added. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
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