The OCTA Research group revealed on Thursday (Dec. 30) that the National Capital Region (NCR) is now at moderate risk level after its COVID-19 reproduction rate increased to 1.47 from the previous 0.51.
According to the latest report posted by one of its fellows, Dr. Guido David, the classification of NCR changed from very low risk (December 16-22) to moderate risk based on figures from December 23-29.
OCTA Research Covid Report 12.30.21. NCR now at moderate risk. Reproduction number at 1.47. Healthcare utilization still at very low (19%). @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @News5PH @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @ABSCBNNews @allangatus @RMMendozaMT @EagleNews @DrTonyLeachon pic.twitter.com/aewoTfuIvS
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 30, 2021
OCTA Research added that the DOH reported 572 new COVID cases in NCR. It was 229% higher than the number the previous day.
NCR’s seven-day average in new daily cases increased to 215 on December 23-29 from 79 on December 16-22.
The reproduction number of COVID-19 cases also jumped from 0.51 to 1.47. OCTA Research considered the figures critical as the group previously said the reproduction number should be less than one to indicate a decreasing trend in COVID-19 transmission.
However, the average daily attack rate (ADAR), or the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population, is still considered low to 1.52 from 0.56.
The hospital utilization rate slightly increased to 19% from 18% but remained at a very low level.
“This is not surprising because of the increased number of holiday gatherings during the week of the holiday. At this time, it is still uncertain if there will be a continued increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases, or if this number will drop back down once the holidays are over,” OCTA Research report read.
“We need to prevent this increase in new cases in the NCR from becoming a surge of infections,” it added.
Following the uptick, Malacañang earlier said that the local government units (LGUs) must continue to enforce the minimum public health standards and to implement granular lockdowns should there be an increase of COVID-19 transmission in their respective areas.
“Kapag tumataas ang bilang ng kaso [ng COVID-19], granular lockdown [kaagad]. Hindi po nawala sa equation ang granular lockdown,” Acting Presidential Spokesperson and Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles said in the press briefing on Wednesday, Dec. 29.
“Responsibilidad po ng LGUs ang mag-granular lockdown kapag may nakitang clustering of cases. Huwag natin kalimutan iyan. Huwag nating hayaan na lumaki pa ito [COVID-19 cases],” he added. – (PTV News)CC-rir
