OCTA: PH sees downward trend of COVID-19 reproduction numbers

By Pearl Gumapos

The country is now experiencing a downward trend of COVID-19 reproduction numbers, the OCTA Research Group said on Thursday (Sept. 23).

“Iyong reproduction number sa Metro Manila ay bumaba na ng less than one. It’s 0.99,” Prof. Guido David said during the Laging Handa public briefing.

“Mayroon din tayong one week growth rate na minus 20%. Ibig sabihin iyong average na bilang ng kaso ngayong linggo ay 4,600, mas mababa iyan ng 20% kaysa sa nakaraan na linggo na 5,800. So, malaking binawas iyan.”

Aside from Metro Manila, other areas have experienced a reproduction number below one: Cavite (0.87), Laguna (0.90), Bulacan (0.86), and Cebu City (0.66).

“So, hindi lang sa Metro Manila ang nakita nating improvement. Ngayon pa man, gusto nating linawin na nagsisimula palang iyong pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso,” David said.

“Kailangan patuloy pa rin ang pagsunod natin sa mga health protocols at may mga regions na nagsisimula palang tumaas ang bilang ng kaso. Kaya patuloy pa rin ang pag-iingat natin,” he added.

According to David, a reproduction number below one signifies the slowing down of COVID-19 infections.

However, despite the decrease in reproduction numbers, there is still the need to be cautious, he said.

“’Yung pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso, nagsimula iyan, nakita natin, mga last week. So far, ang nakita natin peak natin noong Sept. 11. Simula noon, nagsimula nang bumaba [ang mga kaso],” David said.

“May nakikita na tayong epekto ng granular lockdown. At wala pa tayong nakikitang spike ng cases sa ngayon, so ibig sabihin, effective naman ang ginagawa nating interventions.” – jlo

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