By Rod Lagusad
The OCTA Research Team said that the government should consider a much tighter restriction like imposing Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) to slow down the increasing number of new cases of COVID-19 in the country.
Dr. Butch Ong said during the Laging Handa Public Briefing that this is the stand of the research team based on their discussion over the last few days.
Dr. Ong explained, “One could be the solution is tighter restriction in community mobility. ‘Yung ating (Our) NCR Plus GCQ bubble if we maintain it, it could take longer for us to see a sudden decrease naman, so perhaps now we should consider a tighter restriction.”
He stressed that based on last year’s performance, the two-week time out for healthcare workers has significantly helped decrease the number of new cases for the next four months.
Dr. Ong added, “So nagkaroon tayo ng MECQ bandang (So we had MECQ around) July, August and we saw a steady decrease until noong (last) December and siguro ngayon (maybe now), we might need a time out na rin (also) and we might need an MECQ again for two weeks.”
OCTA justified that the pattern could be similar this year with the current number of COVID-19 cases. It still projects around 11,000 cases by the end of the month with the current figure of new COVID-19 cases. The group is studying the data for the past several days.
“If we’re going to maintain the localized lockdown and if the change, the change in the reproduction number is only 0.1, ‘yung (the) change niya pababa (downtrend), we might see an improvement in about ten weeks and that is too long for our healthcare workers or health care system,” Dr. Ong pointed out.
He further explained that the current reproduction rate is at 1.94 from the previous 2.04 despite the localized lockdowns imposed by different local government units. The bed capacity of hospitals is being challenged with the rising cases.
OCTA projected that there are only two weeks left before the hospitals reach full capacity.
Meanwhile, Dr. Ong hopes for an improvement in the reporting of data by the Department of Health (DOH) to have a closer look of the real time situation.
OCTA suggested reassessing improvement every two weeks, which is vital in deciding whether to tighten or ease restrictions. It also maintains its stand to further increase the number of testing capacity especially now that there are different COVID-19 variants in the country.
Dr. Ong also noted that the vaccine rollout is important to help slow down further transmission alongside abiding by health protocols.
The DOH reported an all-time high record since the start of the pandemic with 9,838 new cases yesterday.
