UP experts see flattening of curve by September

Researchers from the University of the Philippines (UP) said the flattening of the curve in the country’s COVID-19 situation may be reached by the end of August or by September.

Dr. Guido David explained that the reproduction number in the country fell from 1.5 to 1.1 after the two-week modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila and its suburbs.

“Hindi ibig sabihin flattened na ang curve, hindi ibig sabihin tapos na ‘yung pandemic. Ibig sabihin lang noon, nandoon na tayo sa nagslo-slowdown na ang trajectory natin, so pababa na ‘yung bilang ng kaso (A flattened curve does not mean that the pandemic has ended. It just means that the trajectory is slowing down and the number of cases are decreasing),” David cautioned.

The effects of the pandemic may last in the National Capital Region (NCR) until November as the daily recorded cases in the region still play around the 2,000 mark.

The Department of Health (DOH) reiterated that other considerations should be taken into account amid the increase in cases.

“We have to be cautious when we interpret these curves because this is not just the numbers that we look at. We also look at the capacity of the health system in any given country,” DOH USec. Maria Rosario Vergeire said.

The DOH also advised learning how to live with the new normal as the pandemic may last for two years, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

“We have a disadvantage of globalization, closeness, connectedness but an advantage of better technology so we hope to finish this pandemic before less than two years,” WHO Dir. Gen. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus cited.

As of August 24, there are 194,252 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 59,200 of which are active. Total reported recoveries stand at 132,024 while the number of deaths increased to 3,010.

Meanwhile, telecommunication companies Globe and Smart immediately responded on Monday to the government’s request for additional lines for the One Hospital Command program which has been facing challenges brought about by limited phone lines. – Report from Mark Fetalco

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