Daily reported cases of COVID-19 may reach up to 20,000 in April if the current surge of cases is not arrested, the OCTA Research Group projected.
The forecast was based on the current 1.9 reproduction number of COVID-19.
The detection of new variants has surfaced amid the increase of COVID-19 cases with the first case of P.1 (Brazilian variant) and the reported 98 cases of P.3 or the first reported variant in the Philippines. But the health department cited that only seven percent of the samples in the genome sequencing are considered under variants of concern.
Among the factors currently being monitored is the nationwide healthcare utilization of hospitals which the Department of Health (DOH) reported as currently under low-risk level. But the number of patients brought to intensive care units (ICU) is growing.
“NCR, the latest data that we have is at 49%. However, I think we also need to highlight to everyone that while the number is currently at 49%, the ICU beds are at already 65%, mechanical ventilators at 38%,” Dr. Beverly Ho, concurrent Director IV of DOH-Health Promotion Bureau, underscored.
The research group said the projection can be prevented with the implementation of localized lockdown and curfew.
The DOH is again urging the public to observe health protocols even at home to prevent clustering of cases in households and workplaces.
– Report from Mark Fetalco
