Professor Guido David of the UP Octa Research Group said that the Holy Week may help ease off COVID19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR).
David asserted that because it is common for many people in the metro to take a vacation during the Holy Week, it may help control the COVID19 surge in NCR.
“Kapag bumaba ‘yung density ng NCR during the Holy Week, pwedeng ma-reduce ‘yung mobility. Hindi naman magiging kaunti ‘yung cases, kundi, possible na ma-slow down ‘yung pandemic curve natin (If the density in NCR goes down during the Holy Week, mobility may be reduced. The cases will not necessarily dwindle but it is possible that our pandemic curve would slow down,” Guido explained in Balitaan sa Maynila weekly online forum.
He further noted that during the holiday break last year, “nakita naming possibility kaya bumaba din noong December, maraming umuwi. Nabawasan ‘yung density sa Metro Manila and I think nakapag-control ‘yun (we saw the possibility on why the figures went down last December is that a lot of people went home. Metro Manila’s density was lessened and I think it helped control the situation)”.
10k cases per day still possible
The Octa member, however, maintained that the almost eight thousand cases recorded yesterday may still go up in the coming days.
David predicted that the number may descend but there is a probability of recording 10 thousand cases per day by the end of March because of the “momentum” of the pandemic.
“Even with the measure na ini-implement natin, maybe we can slow it down pero mahirap ‘yan pababain. That’s the reality. So ‘yun nga 10k per day by the end of March and we’re looking more pa sa April (Even with the measure that we are implementing, maybe we can slow it down but it would be difficult to pull it lower. That’s the reality. So the 10K per day by the end of March and we’re looking more by April,” he added.
Prioritize NCR in vaccination
Professor David noted that the more than 300 thousand individuals vaccinated in the whole country is still far from the herd immunity that the government wants to reach. That is why the Octa team has been proposing for the NCR to be the priority of COVID19 vaccination.
Guido estimated that if 7 to 8 million of NCR’s population will be inoculated, herd immunity can be possibly achieved. This should be considered as surge may happen in the NCR which is the trade capital of the country.
“Kapag na-control natin ‘yung NCR, maco-control natin ‘yung pandemic sa buong Philippines kasi nga lahat dumaraan dito. And that’s why tingin natin talagang i-priority ‘yung NCR, lalo na controlled na ‘yung cases sa ibang lugar maliban sa NCR (Once the NCR’s case is controlled, the pandemic in the whole Philippines will be controlled since everybody passes through here. And that is why we think that the NCR should be given priority especially when the cases of other places have already been controlled except that of the NCR),” Guido expounded.
The Octa team also urged the public to remain cautious and follow minimum health standards as cases continue to spike in the NCR. —Kenneth Paciente
