The daily reported number of new COVID-19 cases in the country may reach 30,000 in late September or early October amid the Delta variant threat, the University of the Philippines (UP) Pandemic Response Team said.
The team’s Jomar Rabajante said among the big factors that affect the number is the spike of cases in provinces outside Metro Manila.
“Kapag dire-diretso po ‘yung ganitong increase natin, around October aabot tayo ng three million; and before the end of December, posibleng four million tayo,” Rabajante said.
The Department of Health (DOH) said it is not yet certain whether the said projection will take place, and that it is already studying its nationwide projections.
“Ginagamit ng Department of Health at ng gobyerno ang projections para i-project natin at malaman natin ano ba ‘yung pangangailangan natin,” Dr. Alethea de Guzman of the DOH-Epidemiology Bureau said.
As of Aug. 30, there were over 41,000 active cases in Metro Manila, fewer than the initial projection of 84,000 by the end of the said month.
Country still at high risk
The latest DOH report shows that the country remains under high-risk classification for COVID-19. However, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, and Central Luzon have recorded reduced two-week growth rates.
Dr. De Guzman/DOH says the Philippines remains under high risk classification for COVID-19, but the growth in cases declined to 45%. pic.twitter.com/M36jJW4r0T
— PTVph (@PTVph) September 2, 2021
A total of 87 areas nationwide were also placed under Alert Level 4 due to their COVID-19 hospital bed and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rates that are higher than 70%.
Dr. De Guzman/DOH says there are no areas under Alert Level 1 nationwide, while 87 areas are under Alert level 4. pic.twitter.com/JvZEj8jwpB
— PTVph (@PTVph) September 2, 2021
Dr. de Guzman said the nationwide bed utilization is under moderate risk at 68.27%, but ICU utilization is under high risk at 73.32% as of Aug. 30. The bed and ICU utilization rates of Calabarzon, Regions 2, 3, 10, and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) remain under monitoring.
The DOH said it is studying the number of severe and critical cases that are not vaccinated.
“Sa nare-report ng ating mga ospital, may pagbaba ng porsyento ng severe at critical cases among our vaccinated versus the unvaccinated,” de Guzman said, while urging the public to avail of complete vaccination.
Meanwhile, the OCTA Research Group said the COVID-19 reproduction number of Metro Manila may settle below 1 during the third week of September. The region’s reproduction number is at 1.39. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG- jlo
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