The National Capital Region (NCR) may be downgraded to Alert Level 1 by December if the downward trend on COVID-19 continues, according to the OCTA Research Group.
Based on the group’s monitoring, the one-week growth rate in Metro Manila became negative anew at -7% as of Nov. 17, 2021. The region also had an average of 379 daily new cases from Nov. 11 to 17, a decline from the 407 recorded from Nov. 4 to 10.
As of Nov. 14, the COVID-19 reproduction number in the region is 0.5, while the positivity rate from Nov. 10 to 16 is 3%.
OCTA said the positivity rate is projected to improve to 2% this week.
“So far, if the trend holds, mukhang kaya natin mag-Level 1 by December and hopefully the trend will hold,” Prof. Ranjit Rye said.
Nationally, the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases is 1,600, down by 27% from the previous week’s figures. If the trend continues, OCTA said the Philippines might not reach 1,000 cases by the end of this month.
Laguna, Cebu, Davao del Sur, Bulacan, Cavite, and Rizal have been identified as low risk due to low case numbers. However, a spike may take place if the public become complacent amid the easing of restrictions.
“Kahit mataas na ‘yung bakuna, pwede pa ring magkaroon ng spike in cases at karamihan ng tatamaan niyan ay ‘yung mga hindi bakunado at yung mga minors,” Prof. Guido David said.
Meanwhile, Dr. Nina Gloriani of the vaccine experts panel said the immune response developed by senior citizens and immunocompromised after getting vaccines may wane after a few months.
“Mayroong mga data three to five months palang bumababa na. Pero sa general population, mga six months. Pero iyong iba maganda pa rin ang immune response nila after eight months, after 10 months,” she said. – Report from Mark Fetalco/AG-rir
